Treasury yields dip as market assesses last week’s jobs data

Aug. 7:

As the market awaits Thursday’s Consumer Price Index report, it continues to try to untangle the consequences of Friday’s employment data.

Fed funds futures see little likelihood of change in interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 20, and only a 36% chance of a tightening at the Nov. 1 meeting. On the other hand, some Federal Reserve officials — most recently Fed Governor Michelle Bowman — have indicated additional rate increases might be needed to bring inflation to the Fed’s long-term target.

This morning, the Dow traded up and Treasury yields were down relative to Friday morning.

Economic calendar

Monday, Aug. 7

• Consumer Credit

Tuesday, Aug. 8

• Trade Balance Report

Thursday, Aug. 10

• Consumer Price Index
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• Monthly Budget Statement

Friday, Aug. 11

• Producer Price Index
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Treasury calendar

Tuesday, Aug. 8

• $42 billion auction of three-year Treasury notes

Wednesday, Aug. 9

• $38 billion auction of 10-year Treasury notes

Thursday, Aug. 10

• $23 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds

By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking