New unemployment claims fall to 9-month low

Oct. 19:

Weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 last week. It’s the lowest number of new unemployment claims since January, demonstrating the continued strength of the jobs market.

The less volatile four-week moving average stands at 205,750. 

Philadelphia Fed forecasts ongoing manufacturing contraction

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook remained negative in October, with an index of -9.00. Any negative value indicates an outlook for contraction in manufacturing in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index has been negative in 16 of the last 18 months.

State of the market

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak before the Economic Club of New York this morning, and the market will be following his remarks closely. 

Treasury yields increased during the day yesterday and were up relative to Wednesday morning. The Dow traded up.

Treasury calendar

Wednesday, Oct. 18

• Yesterday’s $13 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds resulted in a yield of 5.245%, with demand lower than at the previous such auction.

Thursday, Oct. 19

• $22 billion auction of five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking