Hiring slows with just 150,000 jobs added last month
The monthly employment report provided further evidence that the economy may be slowing down a bit. The nonfarm payroll grew by 150,000 in October, which was below expectations, and September job growth was revised downward to 297,000 from the 336,000 originally reported. Manufacturing employment dropped by 35,000 jobs, which was also a surprise, but was significantly affected by the United Auto Workers strike.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9% in October, and the underemployment rate increased from 7.0% to 7.2%. Unemployment and underemployment rose in spite of a small drop in the labor force participation rate, from 62.8% to 62.7%.
Hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month. Annual growth in hourly earnings dropped from 4.3% in September to 4.1% in October. The average workweek decreased slightly from 34.4 to 34.3 hours. A longer average workweek might have indicated a need to fill jobs.
Fed chair to speak at conference next week
Events of interest on next week’s calendar are Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at a conference on Thursday and $112 billion of Treasury note and bond auctions.
State of the market
The market is still assessing the impact of the employment report. As of this morning, the chance of another interest rate hike has virtually disappeared from the Fed funds futures market. The futures market also forecasts a rate cut by the June 12 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and perhaps even earlier. However, that’s not an official forecast, it only reflects the pulse of the market as of this morning.
The Dow traded up this morning and Treasury yields were down relative to Thursday morning.
Tuesday, Nov. 7
Trade Balance Report
Thursday, Nov. 9
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Powell participates in a panel on “Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy” at the International Monetary Fund’s Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.
Friday, Nov. 10
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Tuesday, Nov. 7
$48 billion auction of three-year Treasury notes
Wednesday, Nov. 8
$40 billion auction of 10-year Treasury notes
Thursday, Nov. 9
$24 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds
By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking
Your time is valuable. Process rent payments faster and easier online with Story by J.P. Morgan.
Chase, J.P. Morgan, JPMorgan Chase, and Story by J.P. Morgan are
marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide. “JPMorgan”, “JPMorgan
Chase”, the JPMorgan Chase logo, “Story”, and “Story by J.P.
Morgan” are trademarks of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan Chase
Bank, N.A. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
for additional disclosures and disclaimers related to this
content. Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other
benchmark rates, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR)
are, or may in the future become, subject to ongoing
international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and
proposals for reform. For more information, please consult
The information and materials contained herein are for
informational and educational purposes only and not for business,
legal, accounting, tax or any other advice. We make no
representation or warranties or give any guaranties with respect
to the content and hereby disclaim any and all liability for your
action or inaction. Always consult your own attorney, tax advisor,
accountant or other appropriate professionals.
JPMorgan Chase, 10 S. Dearborn, Mail Code: IL1-0723, Commercial Banking Marketing, Chicago, IL 60603-3403, United States.
ⓒ 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member
FDIC. Deposits held in non-U.S. branches are not FDIC insured.