Markets are reacting to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole retreat Friday. He made it clear the fight against inflation is not over.
It seems likely that the Fed will pause rate hikes at the Sept. 20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but rate increases at subsequent meetings cannot be ruled out. As of this morning, Fed funds futures indicated a 65% chance of a 0.25% rate increase Nov. 1. Previously, the chances were less than 50%. It may also take longer to bring rates down than had been previously anticipated.
Treasury yields popped up following Powell’s speech but have since retreated and there has been some flattening in the yield curve. The Dow traded up this morning.
Tuesday, Aug. 29
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
FHFA House Price Index
Wednesday, Aug. 30
ADP Employment Report
Q2 Gross Domestic Product
Pending Home Sales
Thursday, Aug. 31
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Personal Income/Personal Spending
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Sept. 1
Monthly Employment Report
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Monday, Aug. 28
$45 billion auction of two-year Treasury notes
$46 billion auction of five-year Treasury notes
Tuesday, Aug. 29
$36 billion auction of seven-year Treasury notes
By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking
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