Existing home sales fell as prices hit near-record high

July 21:

Existing home sales were down 3.3% in June, falling to an annualized rate of 4.16 million. It’s the lowest sales have been since January, while prices were at the second-highest level recorded since the index was first published in January 1999. The median existing home price was $410,200.

Index of Leading Indicators continues to slide

The index of Leading Indicators fell another 0.7% in June, the 15th consecutive monthly drop. The Conference Board, which publishes the index, notes that this is the longest negative streak since the runup to the Great Recession. The Conference Board forecasts a recession from the third quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2024, although other analysts have been leaning toward a soft landing recently.

Rate hike expected at next week’s FOMC meeting

Next week’s calendar is quite full, with the main focus on Wednesday’s conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A 0.25% rate increase is almost universally expected. What will be of most interest is the Federal Reserve’s comments about past, present and future economic conditions.

There will be plenty of other key numbers to watch for, including home price data, consumer confidence reports, a first look at Q2 Gross Domestic Product, the advance durable goods report and, on Friday, the Fed’s key inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. There will also be $144 billion in Treasury note auctions.