Drop in job openings jolts the market

Aug. 30:

The Job Openings report showed only 8.827 million new jobs in July, down from 9.165 million in June. It’s the lowest number of job openings since March 2021. 

ADP: Steep decline in job growth in August

The ADP Employment Report showed only 177,000 jobs were added in August, down from 371,000 the prior month. The ADP report is quite often a poor indicator of how the government’s employment report, which will be released Friday, may turn out — but it impacts the market nevertheless, at least temporarily.

Q2 GDP growth revised to 2.1%

Gross Domestic Product growth in the second quarter was revised to 2.1% from the 2.4% increase reported last month. The revision was primarily due to a lower level of business investment than was previously estimated.

Consumer confidence fell in August

The Consumer Confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114.0 in July.

State of the market

The chance of a 0.25% rate increase at the Nov. 1 Federal Open Market Committee, as implied by the Fed funds futures market, has dropped to about 45% from the 65% chance previously seen.

This morning, the Dow traded up and Treasury yields continued to drop in response to the GDP revision and ADP employment report.

Economic calendar

Wednesday, Aug. 30

• Pending Home Sales

Thursday, Aug. 31

• Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
• Personal Income/Personal Spending
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, Sept. 1

• Monthly Employment Report
• Construction Spending
• ISM Manufacturing PMI

Treasury calendar

Tuesday, Aug. 29

• Yesterday’s $36 billion auction of seven-year Treasury notes, resulted in a yield of 4.212%, with demand higher than at the previous such auction.

By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking