The July Consumer Price Index report is a good reminder that economic data rarely moves in a straight line. The index rose 0.2%, bringing the annual inflation rate up to 3.2% from 3.0% in June.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.2% in July, matching the increase seen in June. It’s the lowest monthly growth rate since August 2021. Year over year, core CPI dropped slightly from 4.8% to 4.7%. That decline is viewed favorably as the core CPI may give us a better view of inflation trends.
The cost of shelter remains the most significant factor contributing to inflation. Shelter prices were up 0.4% in July and up 7.7% year over year. There will be another CPI report on Sept. 13, one week before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
New unemployment claims jumped to 248,000
Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 last week from 227,000 the week prior. The four-week moving average is now 231,000.
State of the market
The Dow traded up this morning. After some initial gyrations after the CPI report was released, the market settled a bit with very little change in Treasury yields relative to yesterday morning.
Friday, Aug. 11
Producer Price Index
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Wednesday, Aug. 9
Yesterday’s $38 billion auction of 10-year Treasury notes resulted in a yield of 3.999%, with demand higher than at the previous such auction.
Thursday, Aug. 10
$23 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds
By Mike Kraft, Executive Director and Commercial Real Estate Treasurer for Commercial Banking
Your time is valuable. Process rent payments faster and easier online with Story by J.P. Morgan.
Chase, J.P. Morgan, JPMorgan Chase, and Story by J.P. Morgan are
marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide. “JPMorgan”, “JPMorgan
Chase”, the JPMorgan Chase logo, “Story”, and “Story by J.P.
Morgan” are trademarks of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan Chase
Bank, N.A. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
for additional disclosures and disclaimers related to this
content. Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other
benchmark rates, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR)
are, or may in the future become, subject to ongoing
international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and
proposals for reform. For more information, please consult
The information and materials contained herein are for
informational and educational purposes only and not for business,
legal, accounting, tax or any other advice. We make no
representation or warranties or give any guaranties with respect
to the content and hereby disclaim any and all liability for your
action or inaction. Always consult your own attorney, tax advisor,
accountant or other appropriate professionals.
JPMorgan Chase, 10 S. Dearborn, Mail Code: IL1-0723, Commercial Banking Marketing, Chicago, IL 60603-3403, United States.
ⓒ 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member
FDIC. Deposits held in non-U.S. branches are not FDIC insured.